XRP ETF Approval Odds Hit 82% as BlackRock and Fidelity Eyed as Potential Issuers

In Brief:

Nate Geraci believes XRP ETF approval is “just a matter of time,” with odds now at 82%.

BlackRock and Fidelity are expected to enter the race, following the Ripple-SEC legal resolution.

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As optimism around an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) continues to build, experts predict major players like BlackRock and Fidelity could soon file for one in the US. ETF Store President Nate Geraci said the approval is "simply a matter of time," especially as Ripple's legal battle with the SEC nears its end.

XRP is currently the third-largest non-stablecoin by market capitalization, making it a likely target for major ETF issuers. While BlackRock has focused primarily on Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs for now, Geraci expects the firm—along with Fidelity and others—to eventually pursue XRP as well.

Brazil has already approved an XRP ETF through Hashdex, beating the US to market. In the US, Polymarket data shows that approval odds for an XRP ETF by 2025 have jumped to 82%, with a 41% chance of approval by July 31.

Ripple’s recent legal victory against the SEC has also helped fuel confidence. With the regulator dropping its lawsuit and allowing Ripple to retain $75 million from the settlement, CEO Brad Garlinghouse expressed optimism about further US adoption.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts estimate that XRP ETFs could attract $6 to $8 billion in inflows within the first year. However, some market watchers remain skeptical about the long-term value of altcoin ETFs compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum.

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